Anticipatory Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Water Distribution Infrastructures in Coastal Communities Subject to Sea-Level Rise
Vargas, P., and Tien, I., “Anticipatory Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Water Distribution Infrastructure in Coastal Communities Subject to Sea Level Rise,” ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 32, No. 2, June 2026
Abstract — As climate change leads to increasing sea levels, coastal communities are experiencing increased flooding. In the coming years, these effects are expected to lead to movements in coastal populations, with implications for utilities providers, who will face impacts on their distribution network components and changes in demand over time. This study takes an anticipatory approach to infrastructure risk assessment and mitigation. It presents a methodology to characterize the future implications of sea-level rise-induced flooding and population movements for drinking water utility managers, as well as mitigation recommendations to prepare these systems for continued operations under these changing conditions. This study assesses and creates a new understanding of the implications of sea-level rise-induced population displacement on demand to water utilities. The method includes novel integration of sea-level rise modeling, climate-change-induced population shifts, and infrastructure risk analysis to create an anticipatory risk assessment approach for water distribution infrastructure operations and management for the coming decades. Additionally, an emphasis is placed on proposing mitigation recommendations at various points throughout the study. High-resolution building datasets are used in combination with sea-level rise projections to estimate the magnitude and timeline of the change in demand to the drinking water supply. The methodology combines quantitative and qualitative analyses to provide detailed component-specific risk assessment and mitigation measures while considering the urgency with which these mitigation measures may be needed. The methodology is applied to two study areas in Chatham County, GA, on the eastern coast of the United States. Qualitative assessment over a range of study area conditions leads to findings of specific patterns in future types of flooding on a neighborhood scale, which are presented with corresponding mitigation recommendations. A pipe prioritization score combines several physical and operational factors across space and time to quantitatively and systematically highlight pipes that are particularly likely to require intervention to prepare for future changes from sea-level rise in coastal communities.
Leave a Reply